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Stock returns after late-filing notices (NT 10-K and NT 10-Q), 2015-2026

Published 2026-10-19 · updated 2026-10-19 · RedFlagFilings research · 30,460 verified flags from SEC filings, 2015-01-02 to 2026-10-16

30,460verified flags

-46.8%median 1-year return vs SPY

74%trailed SPY over 1 year

-44.4%delisting-adjusted median vs SPY

Summary

Late filings (NT 10-K / NT 10-Q): across 16,590 flags with a full year of price data (2015-2026), the median stock returned -33.7% and trailed the S&P 500 (SPY) by 46.8 percentage points over the next year; 74% did worse than SPY.
NT 10-K: filed within extension: median 1-year return vs SPY -40.1%, 73% trailed SPY (n=3,935).
NT 10-K: filed late: median 1-year return vs SPY -45.9%, 73% trailed SPY (n=1,833).
NT 10-K: never filed: median 1-year return vs SPY -79.4%, 86% trailed SPY (n=305).
NT 10-Q: filed within extension: median 1-year return vs SPY -49.2%, 75% trailed SPY (n=6,902).
NT 10-Q: filed late: median 1-year return vs SPY -42.6%, 70% trailed SPY (n=3,219).
NT 10-Q: never filed: median 1-year return vs SPY -66.5%, 82% trailed SPY (n=396).
877 of these stocks stopped trading within a year; counting them at their last trade moves the 1-year median vs SPY from -46.8% to -44.4%.
By size: large caps (over $10B) -14.5% vs SPY over a year (n=51); nano caps (under $50M) -52.7% (n=10,750).

Historical averages, not a prediction, a trading strategy or investment advice. Many flagged stocks went up.

What this flag is

When a company cannot file its annual report (10-K) or quarterly report (10-Q) on time, it files a Form 12b-25 notice, shown on EDGAR as NT 10-K or NT 10-Q. The notice buys an extension: 15 calendar days for a 10-K and 5 for a 10-Q. Under SEC Rule 12b-25 a report filed within that extension counts as timely.

We track what happened to every notice: the report came within the extension (timely, the mildest case), came late (after the extension), or was never filed (still missing at our latest check). Notices whose extension is still running are left out because the outcome is not known yet.

Returns after the flag

Group	90 days after the filing						180 days after the filing						1 year after the filing
Group	n	median return	mean return*	median vs SPY	mean vs SPY*	% trailed SPY	n	median return	mean return*	median vs SPY	mean vs SPY*	% trailed SPY	n	median return	mean return*	median vs SPY	mean vs SPY*	% trailed SPY
All late-filing notices (outcome known) 30,460 flags	18,448	-6.7%	-8.6%	-11.6%	-12.5%	68%	17,875	-16.7%	-14.5%	-23.7%	-21.1%	70%	16,590	-33.7%	-21.8%	-46.8%	-34.7%	74%
NT 10-K: filed within extension 6,751 flags	4,346	-7.7%	-8.8%	-12.0%	-12.2%	68%	4,303	-16.3%	-14.8%	-23.5%	-21.0%	70%	3,935	-29.0%	-20.1%	-40.1%	-31.9%	73%
NT 10-K: filed late 3,250 flags	2,025	-7.1%	-4.8%	-12.9%	-9.6%	67%	1,987	-21.0%	-14.2%	-27.8%	-22.1%	71%	1,833	-33.3%	-10.6%	-45.9%	-25.5%	73%
NT 10-K: never filed 1,055 flags	383	-19.3%	-20.9%	-23.6%	-25.9%	75%	362	-51.0%	-47.1%	-60.0%	-54.7%	83%	305	-70.1%	-52.6%	-79.4%	-63.7%	86%
NT 10-Q: filed within extension 12,171 flags	7,575	-6.6%	-8.1%	-11.1%	-11.7%	68%	7,315	-16.8%	-14.2%	-23.5%	-20.1%	70%	6,902	-37.5%	-25.0%	-49.2%	-37.7%	75%
NT 10-Q: filed late 5,736 flags	3,608	-3.0%	-7.0%	-9.6%	-11.6%	70%	3,463	-7.7%	-8.3%	-16.7%	-16.1%	70%	3,219	-28.6%	-15.4%	-42.6%	-29.2%	70%
NT 10-Q: never filed 1,497 flags	511	-28.4%	-30.1%	-30.5%	-34.1%	78%	445	-43.0%	-35.4%	-47.8%	-42.5%	80%	396	-55.1%	-39.3%	-66.5%	-53.7%	82%

* Mean = trimmed mean that drops the top and bottom 5% of returns (a few micro-cap returns of +1,000% or more would otherwise dominate). "vs SPY" is the stock's return minus the S&P 500 ETF's return over the same dates, in percentage points.

By year of the filing

Year	Flags	90 days			180 days			1 year
Year	Flags	n	median vs SPY	% trailed	n	median vs SPY	% trailed	n	median vs SPY	% trailed
2015	3,564	1,280	-12.8%	65%	1,277	-23.1%	68%	1,273	-47.1%	76%
2016	3,323	1,310	-8.3%	62%	1,309	-16.5%	66%	1,307	-34.3%	69%
2017	2,941	1,315	-11.9%	69%	1,316	-22.5%	70%	1,309	-38.1%	73%
2018	2,632	1,337	-10.5%	65%	1,325	-20.7%	67%	1,324	-41.9%	75%
2019	2,413	1,431	-17.2%	73%	1,431	-33.4%	75%	1,430	-49.5%	78%
2020	1,778	1,242	-4.8%	53%	1,242	-8.9%	54%	1,238	-3.5%	51%
2021	2,583	2,115	-8.8%	73%	2,078	-13.7%	71%	2,024	-35.3%	66%
2022	2,617	2,139	-7.0%	63%	2,093	-20.9%	64%	1,854	-55.0%	75%
2023	2,901	2,165	-14.6%	74%	2,036	-31.9%	81%	1,887	-73.0%	85%
2024	2,632	1,938	-15.7%	73%	1,920	-32.9%	76%	1,818	-58.6%	80%
2025	1,882	1,457	-14.2%	70%	1,434	-27.1%	72%	1,126	-56.1%	78%
2026	1,194	719	-23.6%	76%	414	-48.4%	84%	0	too few

Recent years have fewer completed windows: a 1-year return needs a full year after the filing.

By company size at the flag

Market cap at the flag	90 days after the filing						180 days after the filing						1 year after the filing
Market cap at the flag	n	median return	mean return*	median vs SPY	mean vs SPY*	% trailed SPY	n	median return	mean return*	median vs SPY	mean vs SPY*	% trailed SPY	n	median return	mean return*	median vs SPY	mean vs SPY*	% trailed SPY
Nano-cap (under $50M) 12,349 flags	11,853	-12.2%	-7.0%	-16.7%	-11.1%	68%	11,504	-23.3%	-12.1%	-29.9%	-19.1%	70%	10,750	-40.0%	-16.9%	-52.7%	-30.8%	75%
Micro-cap ($50M-300M) 3,987 flags	3,800	-0.6%	-8.5%	-8.1%	-12.2%	70%	3,652	-4.4%	-15.0%	-14.1%	-21.2%	72%	3,295	-22.0%	-24.2%	-34.8%	-35.6%	73%
Small-cap ($300M-2B) 1,956 flags	1,892	-1.1%	-8.9%	-8.0%	-12.1%	68%	1,844	-4.7%	-13.8%	-13.5%	-19.3%	68%	1,707	-16.7%	-22.3%	-31.3%	-32.3%	68%
Mid-cap ($2B-10B) 223 flags	220	-1.8%	-2.6%	-5.8%	-6.2%	65%	216	-0.7%	-0.5%	-6.3%	-8.6%	60%	209	-2.0%	-1.3%	-15.8%	-15.0%	67%
Large-cap (over $10B) 57 flags	57	+1.4%	-1.0%	-3.0%	-4.6%	58%	55	+4.3%	+1.0%	-3.5%	-5.7%	64%	51	+1.6%	-0.3%	-14.5%	-15.0%	78%
Market cap unknown at the flag 11,888 flags	626	-8.4%	-14.6%	-14.3%	-18.4%	72%	604	-29.3%	-28.2%	-36.3%	-34.7%	77%	578	-60.4%	-46.8%	-72.0%	-58.2%	81%

Delisting-adjusted returns

Group	90 days		180 days		1 year
Group	completed windows	delisting-adjusted	completed windows	delisting-adjusted	completed windows	delisting-adjusted
All late-filing notices (outcome known)	-11.6%	-11.5% (227 stopped)	-23.7%	-23.0% (434 stopped)	-46.8%	-44.4% (877 stopped)
NT 10-K: filed within extension	-12.0%	-11.8% (31 stopped)	-23.5%	-23.3% (57 stopped)	-40.1%	-38.2% (158 stopped)
NT 10-K: filed late	-12.9%	-12.9% (12 stopped)	-27.8%	-27.4% (27 stopped)	-45.9%	-44.4% (63 stopped)
NT 10-K: never filed	-23.6%	-23.6% (24 stopped)	-60.0%	-59.9% (33 stopped)	-79.4%	-77.7% (42 stopped)
NT 10-Q: filed within extension	-11.1%	-10.9% (78 stopped)	-23.5%	-22.6% (160 stopped)	-49.2%	-47.1% (326 stopped)
NT 10-Q: filed late	-9.6%	-9.6% (45 stopped)	-16.7%	-16.5% (95 stopped)	-42.6%	-39.0% (203 stopped)
NT 10-Q: never filed	-30.5%	-29.5% (37 stopped)	-47.8%	-45.6% (62 stopped)	-66.5%	-63.1% (85 stopped)

Median return vs SPY. The plain figure only counts stocks that still traded at the end of the window. The delisting-adjusted figure also counts stocks that stopped trading first at their last close. Stopping can mean a delisting or bankruptcy, but also an acquisition, merger or going-private deal, and a last close can come before a later loss (for example shares that keep trading over the counter without price data), so the adjustment can move the median either way. Companies that no longer have any ticker are missing from both figures.

Notable large-cap cases

Filed	Company	Flag	Market cap at the flag	90 days vs SPY	1 year vs SPY
2019-03-01	LINDE PLC (LIN)	Filing-delay notice, annual report filed within extension (NT 10-K)	$92B	+5.9%	+3.6%
2025-03-03	Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM)	Filing-delay notice, annual report filed within extension (NT 10-K)	$90B	-0.1%	-30.7%
2020-03-03	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP (TFC)	Filing-delay notice, annual report filed within extension (NT 10-K)	$63B	-20.3%	-0.6%
2024-04-01	Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)	Late annual report (NT 10-K)	$56B	-10.2%	-7.0%
2024-11-13	Discover Financial Services (DFS)	Late quarterly report (NT 10-Q)	$44B	+8.3%	n/a
2020-03-03	BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC (BAX)	Filing-delay notice, annual report filed within extension (NT 10-K)	$44B	+4.2%	-36.2%
2021-08-09	EBAY INC (EBAY)	Filing-delay notice, quarterly report filed within extension (NT 10-Q)	$42B	+6.6%	-20.0%
2025-02-25	CROWN CASTLE INTERNATIONAL CORP (CCI)	Filing-delay notice, annual report filed within extension (NT 10-K)	$41B	+11.2%	-19.7%
2023-11-29	Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)	Filing-delay notice, annual report filed within extension (NT 10-K)	$36B	+2.6%	+30.0%
2019-08-08	Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)	Filing-delay notice, quarterly report filed within extension (NT 10-Q)	$34B	+2.0%	+3.0%
2016-11-09	ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ALXN)	Late quarterly report (NT 10-Q)	$29B	-0.6%	-25.5%
2018-05-10	PPG INDUSTRIES INC (PPG)	Late quarterly report (NT 10-Q)	$26B	-4.3%	-2.3%

Every flag in this group where the company was worth at least $10B on the filing date and its stock traded at least $25M a day (one row per company, its latest such flag, largest first). Big companies are rare in this data and are shown for context, not as a sample.

Method and caveats

Data: SEC EDGAR filings since 2015, each verified against the filing text with the same rules as the live site and checked by a separate second-opinion verifier and hand samples; split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes and historical market caps from our market data.
Returns: from the last close before the filing to the first close on or after 90 days, 180 days and 1 year later; "vs SPY" subtracts the S&P 500 ETF's return over the same dates. Groups with fewer than 30 completed windows are not shown.
Survivorship: companies without a traded ticker today are missing entirely, and stocks that stopped trading drop out of the plain figures (see delisting-adjusted). Missing companies are often the ones that failed, so the real outcome for investors was likely worse than these figures.
Overlap and size: companies often file several flags and windows overlap, so these are descriptive statistics, not significance tests. Most flagged companies are micro caps, while SPY is a large-cap index; part of the gap is a size effect.
Errors: classification is automated and errors are possible. Reused tickers, reverse splits and thin trading can distort individual returns; medians limit their effect.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past returns say nothing certain about the future.

Download the numbers on this page: late-filings.csv · Chart image: cards/late-filings.png · Recent flags of this type: Filing-delay notices (10-K) · Filing-delay notices (10-Q)

More research: All research · 10-year study (all flags) · Going-concern warnings · Auditor changes (8-K Item 4.01) · Restatements (8-K Item 4.02)

Frequently asked questions

What happens to a stock after it files an NT 10-K or NT 10-Q late-filing notice?

Late filings (NT 10-K / NT 10-Q): across 16,590 flags with a full year of price data (2015-2026), the median stock returned -33.7% and trailed the S&P 500 (SPY) by 46.8 percentage points over the next year; 74% did worse than SPY.

Does the type of late filings matter?

NT 10-K: filed within extension: median 1-year return vs SPY -40.1%, 73% trailed SPY (n=3,935). NT 10-K: filed late: median 1-year return vs SPY -45.9%, 73% trailed SPY (n=1,833). NT 10-K: never filed: median 1-year return vs SPY -79.4%, 86% trailed SPY (n=305). NT 10-Q: filed within extension: median 1-year return vs SPY -49.2%, 75% trailed SPY (n=6,902). NT 10-Q: filed late: median 1-year return vs SPY -42.6%, 70% trailed SPY (n=3,219). NT 10-Q: never filed: median 1-year return vs SPY -66.5%, 82% trailed SPY (n=396).

Do delisted stocks change the result?

877 of these stocks stopped trading within a year; counting them at their last trade moves the 1-year median vs SPY from -46.8% to -44.4%.

Does company size matter?

By size: large caps (over $10B) -14.5% vs SPY over a year (n=51); nano caps (under $50M) -52.7% (n=10,750).

Is this investment advice?

No. These are historical averages computed from SEC filings and market data. They are not a prediction or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and many flagged stocks went up.